Climate, weather, and tracking hurricanes became a hobby - to this day. Models first forecasted Sandy to turn east into the Atlantic. Of the many models, a European model was the first to hint of a westerly turn into the US mainland. In a few days, all models showed a left turn into the US coastline and at that time I realized someone was going to be in trouble.
Even as a Category 1 hurricane, the storm surge would be remarkably high on the north side of its now westerly track. Instead of a usual wind direction switch as a hurricane passes, someone was going to get constant winds from an easterly direction. Sailors use the word "fetch". Wave height depends on the wind's force and how long it has been blowing from the same direction.
By 10 PM on the 29th, waves were over 30 feet aimed directly at Staten Island. The Sandy Hook weather station flooded and went off the air. Air and water temperatures near 60 F. Winds peaked at tropical storm force.
The fire at Breezy Point must be noted. The surge caused an electrical fire, and hundreds of people watched their homes burn to the ground with fire equipment stranded from the high water. By an unfortunate coincidence, both LaGuardia and Central Park recorded only a half inch of rain during the storm. A little more rain might have helped. Sandy was catastrophic and extreme weather event for them.
HURRICANE SANDY
Climate and weather changes are all caused by coincidental, chaotic forces in our atmosphere. Sandy may be a champion of coincidences. While some were dying or watching their homes get destroyed, others, only a few miles away, were looking out their front door saying, “Gee! A bit windy but not so bad.”
One such person was Adam Sobel, PhD, a tenured professor at Columbia University. In addition to hundreds of peer-review articles in scientific journals, in 2014 he wrote a book, Storm Surge, to answer the many questions he was receiving from the news media about Sandy
He relates going down to his front door around 10 PM to look out for a few minutes. There was no more than a drizzle and the winds were gusty but not severe. He ends up walking through his neighborhood to the Hudson River. (Good to know.) His book is wordy and from my perspective it glosses over the causes of the storm surge, the title of the book.
In 1967 I was a copilot on Boeing 707s flying from San Francisco to New York JFK. Approaching JFK we needed to stay above the Newark and LaGuardia traffic and descend over the Atlantic Ocean. To our right was the Ambrose Lightship. To the left was the JFK airport. In 1968 the ship was decommissioned, and a tower erected at the spot. The bright light was visible in the daytime as well as night. Ships kept running into the tower and it was replaced in 2003 with a buoy, maintained by the National Data Buoy Center, Buoy 44065. Its data shows 90% of the causes of Sandy.
By 5 AM the winds drop below tropical storm velocity, but the direction pushes 20 foot waves up the Hudson River and cause a record breaking storm surge as far north as Poughkeepsie.
The highest wave height, 32.3 feet, coincided exactly with the maximum high tide. (Waves over 30 feet lasted for several hours aimed directly at Staten Island.
See the NHC summary of Sandy.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf
“… In many of these locations, especially along the coast of central and northern New Jersey, Staten Island, and southward-facing shores of Long Island, the surge was accompanied by powerful damaging waves.”
NYC needs money to repair its aging infrastructure, so a mayor tried to sue “big oil” for contributing to climate change. It is politics, not science.
Photo, Sandy damage, Adobe Stock #312567580. Should these boat owners sue Exxon/Mobil?